The Oregonian has published another great article about the proposed Jordan Cove LNG export terminal, this time focusing upon the hazards in the event of an “inevitable” 9.0 earthquake.

Experts maintain that a mega-thrust earthquake off the Oregon coast is not simply a possibility, it’s inevitable. In fact, it’s overdue. Historically such quakes have recurred every 240 years, with the last one 314 years ago.

“It should be an assumption that this will happen during the lifetime of the facility,” said Chris Goldfinger, a seismologist at Oregon State University and leading authority on subduction zone earthquakes. “You can engineer anything to survive anything if you put enough money into it, but I’ve seen a lot of very well-engineered stuff destroyed as if it were Legos.”

The article quotes Jordan Cove project manager, Bob Braddock, who insists the plant will survive anything and contain all hazards within its property borders. He further maintains that a tanker would also be protected within the slip by three tractor tugs in the event of a tsunami. Not all experts agree.

The maximum wave height modeled in Jordan Cove’s tsunami study was 36 feet at the north end of the tanker slip. Combined with potential subsidence of 13 feet, the tanker could be bobbing in a run-up of almost 50 feet. Lesser scenarios still showed a combined run-up at the north end of the slip of nearly 30 feet.

That’s a massive and very sudden surge, one potentially full of debris. And it’s not clear how a tanker would fare — even a double-hulled tanker that affords additional protection to the cargo tanks.

Braddock says the storage tanks and other structures would divert a tsunami coming over the North Spit around the tanker slip. The wave affecting the slip would be the one that comes up the shipping channel, which would hit the tanker on the bow.

“We don’t see a situation where the tanker is forced out of the slip,” Braddock said. “If anything, it keeps it within the slip but not exactly the way we thought it would.”

Zhang’s study does not reach that conclusion, and the Coast Guard doesn’t analyze tanker security in a tsunami.

“I’m very skeptical that anything can be done in a near-shore tsunami” to protect the tanker,” said Randy Clark, a security specialist with the U.S. Coast Guard. “There simply isn’t enough time. … There are no real regulations. There is no requirement to mitigate this risk.”

Read the entire article here http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2014/06/coos_bay_lng_terminal_designed.html#incart_river