Is Coos Bay really recognized nationally as a retirement paradise, as suggested in the article in The World on November 5? Hopefully, the answer is yes.
Several studies nation-wide have documented the beneficial effects than in-migrating retirees can have on a local economy. These mobile retirees bring with them their savings and investment accounts, as well as retirement and health plans. At the same time, they tend to be law abiding, do not have kids in school, and are not dependent on social services.
Largely because of all these positive aspects, Dr. Mark Fagan of Jacksonville State University in Alabama has estimated that a typical retiree couple moving into a new area has the same economic impact as the establishment of 3.4 new industrial jobs. As a result, several state-sponsored programs designed specifically to attract retirees are in effect across the country.
The World’s article tends to verify some aspects of these studies locally. Lori Austin stated that “she doesn’t see retirees from out of the area using the Area Agency on Aging’s services. The fact that retiree migrants already form a significant part of our local economy is verified by Sam Roth, of Century 21 Reality who states “About 25 percent of our sales are to people from outside the area……thinking about retirement”.
The current and potentially even greater contribution to our economy by retirees does not mean we should tailor our area exclusively to their needs. We need a diversified economy which includes manufacturing and industrial activities compatible with our area. This can only come about if we develop planning processes which are much more comprehensive and integrative than those currently operating.
For example, over the past few decades we have considered placing a pulp mill, a steel plant, and now a LNG terminal on the North Spit. All of these proposals have the potential for changing the character of our area to the degree that retirees currently here would leave, and the attractiveness of our area for future retirees would greatly diminish. Using Dr. Fagan’s analysis, it is entirely possible that the new jobs created by any of these proposals might be offset over time by the loss of the economic benefits of the retiree component of the population.
We urgently need to develop new planning processes in our area – processes that truly and transparently integrate social, economic, and environmental considerations.
To continue to rely on blatant and opportunistic justifications in lieu of comprehensive planning is a recipe for disaster.
