Ouch! With only two days left some major voting needs to happen or less than 30% of the electorate will be deciding who wins the commissioners races or moves on to the general election in November!
In analyzing the daily mail count linked above 3,136 votes have been dropped off in Coos Bay and North Bend. During the recall it was the precincts in these two cities that enabled Stufflebean to survive. 4,546 votes of the 10,285 votes received are mail ins and I don’t know statistically whether most of those ballots arrive from the more remote precincts or not. If they do it probably bodes ill for both Kevin and Nikki. The remaining 2,602 votes are from the outer county and Coquille where neither incumbent is popular, particularly Kevin.
What does all this mean? I don’t know, unfortunately I am no Nate Silver but lets assume Kevin and Nikki take 100% of the CB/NB votes and 40% of the mail in which comes to 4,954. Then assume the challengers take 100% of the outlying areas and 60% of the mail in which comes to 5,329. If I understand it right, this will force a runoff in November between the two highest vote takers per position.
