The joint proposal by Coos County and the Coquille Tribe to take over management of the 59,000 acres of Coos Bay Wagon Road lands from the BLM is in the spotlight currently.
As I understand it, if the transfer is made, applicable federal laws such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the Endangered Species Act will continue to govern all actions on the transferred lands. The County has stated in writing that “The planning, development and implementation of resource management
projects/actions will be subject to applicable Federal environmental laws” and that “management will be subject to Interior Department review…and all applicable environmental laws”.
The driving force behind this proposal seems to be the belief on the part of the BOC that, even though operations would essentially be controlled by existing law and BLM land-use and allowable harvest plans, management by the Tribe would somehow generate vast sums of timber sale receipts. The statement has been made in writing by the BOC that management by the Tribe would “generate nearly $185 million in government revenue over 10 years”. This statement has appeared without any explanation or substantiation of any kind.
I decided to look into this matter using data already in the public domain. Because of the vast amount of data and analysis contained in the Final EIS for BLM’s WOPR, I will proceed for the sake of this analysis under the assumption that the WOPR were to be in full force and effect.
The Coos Bay District of the BLM contains 302,000 acres of forest land. Under the WOPR proposed action, the annual allowable timber sale quantity would be 97,000,000 board feet (97,000 MBF) per year. This means that each acre of timber land supports the contribution of 321 board feet on average to the allowable cut each year.
Multiplying this productivity figure times the 59,000 acres of CBWR lands indicates that it is reasonable to expect, again given that the expectation is to manage consistent with current federal laws and plans, that the allowable cut on the transferred lands would be 18,939 MBF annually.
In order to get an estimate as to how much revenue this volume of timber sold might generate, I used the weighted average stumpage value of the last 5 timber sales the Coos Bay BLM has sold in 2011 (data available on the BLM website). This analysis indicated it is reasonable to assume an average return of $69.78 per MBF sold.
Multiplying 18,939 MBF to be sold at a return of $69.78 per MBF would indicate a total receipt of $1,321,563 per year. This would indicate a reasonable expectation that decadal receipts would total $13,215,630.
Given the BOC estimate of “$185,000,000 in government revenue over 10 years”, it appears their estimate is 14 times greater than the one compiled with currently available data.
It would appear an explanation is in order.
Hi JW, as far as I can tell, the county or more accurately, Commissioner Cam Parry, is lobbying Congress on behalf of the tribe. Whether the tribe has hired a registered lobbyist or who they might be, I don’t know.
Mary,
Do you know who the lobbyist(s) are for the Tribe? Is there any connection to any of the BOC?
And never forget who is advising the tribe.
The Koch Suckers.
That can only ‘come’ to no good for this county.
This is interesting and as usual your simple arthmatic embarrasses the mighty but you ought to go back and refigure because a federal judge just threw out the WOPR. Start from Clinton’s Northwest Management Plan. The truth as I see it is harsh. According to current rules the timber industry has over cut their lands and what is available from the public and they need to change to steal more logs or they are doomed. Doom. Big fat federal old growth trees will fetch a lot of cash in China so they want to get what they can before the axe falls, for lack of a better metaphor. Doom
themguys, an acquaintance does a superb Alfred Hitchcock/Bob Main impersonation complete with rolling eyes and lip wetting and finger rolling – you would not be able to stop laughing
A forester friend sent me an email regarding this post, he says, “Given mill pond prices for logs, a depressed condition not expected to change until after 2020, your numbers are likely closer to reality than the any figures offered by the tribe. Here is what I think lies behind their numbers, the strategy of the Tribe and County is to manage under applicable law but not the Northwest Forest Plan. This will allow the tribe and county to increase harvest volume and cut old growth and late successional trees in the 80 to 199 year age class which is of much higher value than current sales on BLM lands from thinning. “
Too damn early for numbers at my house. Thank gawd for every one of you working on these issues. My head swims . Where would we be without you guys taking this on? I can’t tell you how grateful I am to have people working hard to try and set this ship right.
Lord knows there are so many entrenched players in this county, I expect the Hatfield and McCoy families are running it.
Thank you thank you thank you to all of you working so hard, for no pay, and you still keep working.
Hopefully the Robber Barrons will move somewhere else.
Not much talk about the Koch Suckers that are right in the middle of this bunch of scheisters.
Do those Trust A Farians (Koch brothers) have their claws in everybodys’ panties? It sure seems like it.
ps. at what point does Bob Main have to actually ‘splain’ himself to We The People, instead of putting his hands together, leaning his head back and pretending to be Alfred Hitchcock? Ever notice that?
One of my unanswered questions relates to definition of “governmental revenue”. Does that term include federal and tribal governments? To date no answer, however, on the chart prepared by the tribe they show an OFPA management scenario that projects $18 million a year – if Main is thinking the county will receive $3.5 million to $8.5 million (quite a spread I might add) my guess is the tribal share of revenue will come out of the theoretical $18 million.
“Middle-man-accounting”, takes a special ability and position.
The ability requires blinders and earplugs, the position wraps your torso down and behind so your head is going up where the sun don’t shine.
Middle-men, lobbyist, and politicians have been seen in public sporting that warm hairdo.
Wait on minute! If the BOC is saying that government revenue over ten years will be $185,000,000, and the government and the tribe are going to do a 50-50 split, then total revenue would be $370,000,000. That’s 28 times greater than the current annual allowable WOPR timber sale amount, which would mean that each acre of the Coos Bay District BLM forest of 302,000 acres would have to supply 8,993,000 board feet of lumber.
Either the BOC and the tribe are using magical thinking to arrive at their numbers, or ten years from now they going to have to change the name to the Coos Bay District BLM Desert.